As autumn arrives and the heating season approaches, many households in Estonia face the same question: is it better to fix their electricity price or continue with a spot price plan? Significant price fluctuations in recent years have shown that electricity bills can vary considerably from month to month. This is particularly noticeable in households that also use electricity for heating.

While a fixed electricity price offers greater predictability, a spot price plan may be more affordable under certain conditions. Which option should you choose before winter 2026?

Why Do Electricity Prices Rise in Winter?

Spot electricity prices depend on several factors, including weather conditions, electricity generation capacity, consumption levels and developments in the energy market.

Electricity consumption increases during the winter months as days become shorter, lighting is used more often and many homes require electricity for heating. At the same time, cold and windless weather can reduce renewable energy production, which in turn affects electricity prices.

The beginning of 2026 showed how quickly the situation can change. In January and February, the average spot electricity price reached 15.4 cents per kilowatt-hour, excluding VAT. For many households on spot price plans, this meant higher electricity bills than usual.

Electricity prices for the coming winter are also difficult to predict. That's why autumn is a good time to review your electricity plan and assess whether it still meets your household's needs.

Fixed Electricity Price – Predictable Costs Even During the Coldest Months

With a fixed-rate electricity plan, the price per kilowatt-hour generally remains unchanged for an agreed period. This means that fluctuations in wholesale electricity prices do not directly affect the agreed electricity rate.

The main advantage of a fixed-rate plan is predictable expenses. If you know how much electricity your household usually consumes, it's easier to estimate your upcoming costs.

A fixed electricity price may be a particularly suitable choice if:

your home is heated with electricity or a heat pump;

your electricity consumption is high and cannot be shifted to cheaper hours;

keeping monthly expenses as stable as possible is important for your family budget;

you want to avoid large bills caused by sudden increases in spot electricity prices.

However, a fixed price does not always mean the cheapest electricity. If spot prices remain low for an extended period, customers on fixed-rate plans may end up paying more.

It's also important to remember that a fixed-rate plan does not make your entire electricity bill fixed. Your total bill still depends on how much electricity you use, network charges, taxes and other possible fees.

Spot Price Electricity Plan – A Chance to Save, but Also a Risk of Higher Bills

With a spot price electricity plan, the cost of electricity follows the market price on the electricity exchange. This means prices can change significantly throughout the day.

The main advantage of a spot price plan is the opportunity to take advantage of periods when electricity is cheaper. For example, you can schedule electric vehicle charging, laundry or water heating for hours when electricity prices are lower.

A spot price plan may be especially suitable for households that:

monitor electricity prices and adjust their consumption accordingly;

use smart devices that automatically manage electricity consumption;

can shift high electricity consumption to cheaper hours;

are prepared for the possibility of higher-than-usual electricity bills in some months.

However, spot electricity prices can rise sharply during cold winter days. If a large share of your electricity consumption falls during expensive hours, your monthly bill may come as an unpleasant surprise.

Which Is Cheaper – Fixed-Rate or Spot Price Electricity?

There is no single answer to this question. In some years, spot price plans have been cheaper on average, while in other periods customers with fixed-rate plans have benefited significantly.

The most important factor is your household's actual electricity consumption.

In an apartment with low electricity consumption, the price difference between plans may be relatively small. If electricity is mainly used for lighting and household appliances, the annual cost difference may not be significant.

In a detached house with electric heating, the situation is different. Electricity consumption can increase several times during winter, and even a difference of a few cents per kilowatt-hour can noticeably affect the family budget.

In a home with smart electricity management, a spot price plan may offer significant savings. If heating, electric vehicle charging and other high-consumption devices can be controlled according to electricity prices, it becomes possible to avoid the most expensive periods.

Example: How Much Does the Electricity Price Affect Your Monthly Bill?

Let's assume a detached house consumes 1,500 kWh of electricity during a winter month.

If the electricity price is 10 cents/kWh, the energy cost will be €150. If the price increases to 15 cents/kWh, the same consumption will cost €225.

That's a difference of €75 in just one month.

This is a simplified example that does not include network charges, taxes or other additional fees. The actual cost of a spot price plan also depends on the hours during which electricity is consumed.

More Electricity Consumers Are Choosing Price Stability

Electricity price fluctuations have encouraged many consumers to reconsider their previous choices.

According to a study from June 2026, fixed-rate plans accounted for approximately 60% of electricity plans chosen by customers.

This shows that choosing an electricity plan is not just about finding the lowest possible price. Price stability and the ability to plan monthly expenses are also important to consumers.

What Should You Check Before Fixing Your Electricity Price?

If you're considering switching electricity plans, it's worth comparing different offers and reviewing the following details before signing a contract.

1. Electricity price. Compare the offered price per kilowatt-hour with your current plan. Check whether the quoted prices include VAT.

2. Contract duration. Fixed-rate electricity contracts are available for different periods. Consider how long you want to commit to a particular electricity price.

3. Contract termination conditions. Ending some contracts early may involve additional costs. Read the terms and conditions carefully before signing.

4. Monthly electricity consumption. Review your electricity bills from the past 12 months. This will give you a better understanding of how much electricity you use in summer compared with winter.

5. Options for managing consumption. Consider whether you can shift some of your electricity use to cheaper hours. If you can, a spot price plan may be a more attractive option.

When comparing electricity plans, remember to check monthly fees and other contract-related charges. The price per kilowatt-hour alone may not show which offer is actually more affordable.

How to Keep Winter Electricity Costs Under Control

Whether you choose a fixed-rate or spot price plan, managing your electricity consumption more carefully can help you control your expenses.

For example, it's worth monitoring indoor temperatures, checking heating system settings and avoiding unnecessary electricity use. Even small changes in everyday habits can help reduce costs over time.

If your home has an outdated heating system or energy-intensive appliances, it may be worth considering replacing them with more energy-efficient alternatives.

Larger investments, such as upgrading your heating system, improving home insulation or purchasing energy-efficient appliances, can help reduce electricity consumption and make your home more affordable to maintain in the long term.

If these improvements require a significant investment, start by assessing your existing savings and the potential return on investment. If necessary, a home renovation loan from Laen.ee may be one financing option.

Should You Fix Your Electricity Price Before Winter?

Fixing your electricity price is not necessarily the cheapest option, but it can provide valuable peace of mind when energy market prices are unpredictable.

If your electricity consumption is high and stable monthly expenses are important, fixed-rate electricity plans are certainly worth considering. However, if you can manage your consumption flexibly and price fluctuations do not put pressure on your family budget, a spot price plan may offer better opportunities to save.

The most sensible approach is to compare electricity plans based on your actual consumption rather than relying only on last month's spot prices or forecasts for the coming winter.

Ultimately, the best electricity plan is not necessarily the one with the lowest price, but the one that best suits your household's electricity consumption habits and family budget.