As autumn arrives, household heating costs become an important topic once again. The autumn of 2026 is beginning with considerable pressure on the energy market: European natural gas prices have risen significantly since the summer and reached some of their highest levels in recent years.

In September, natural gas prices on Europe’s main TTF gas market were mostly above €70 per megawatt-hour and exceeded €80/MWh on some days. At the beginning of the summer, prices were considerably lower.

This means Europe is entering the heating season at a time when energy costs are once again becoming an important concern for many households.

However, rising gas prices do not affect only homes that use gas heating. Higher gas prices can also influence electricity prices and therefore have an impact on a much larger share of consumers in Estonia.

Why have gas prices increased?

European gas prices depend on several factors at the same time, including demand, weather conditions, gas storage levels, the availability of LNG — liquefied natural gas — and geopolitical developments.

One of the important factors behind the rise in prices in 2026 has been disruption to LNG supplies from the Middle East.

Qatar’s LNG exports have been affected by developments around the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most important shipping routes for energy supplies.

When part of the usual LNG supply disappears from the market, competition for the remaining cargoes increases. Europe has to compete for LNG with Asian countries, among others, and shipments often go to the markets willing to pay the highest price.

Another important factor is that European gas storage facilities are less full than usual. In mid-September, European gas inventories stood at approximately 67–70% of total capacity, noticeably below the levels typically seen at the same time in recent years.

Could Estonia run out of gas?

A higher price does not automatically mean that there will be a physical shortage of gas.

Europe’s energy infrastructure has changed considerably since the 2022 energy crisis. LNG import capacity has increased, while overall gas consumption has declined compared with earlier years.

The Baltic states can also use several different supply routes, including gas arriving through the LNG terminals in Klaipėda and Inkoo.

It is therefore important to distinguish between two separate issues: the availability of gas and the price of gas.

Even if there are no major concerns about security of supply, purchasing gas on the global market may still be expensive.

Why do gas prices affect electricity prices?

At first glance, it may seem that rising gas prices mainly affect households with gas heating. In reality, gas and electricity prices are closely connected within the European energy market.

When electricity production from wind, solar, hydro and other lower-cost sources is not sufficient to meet demand, gas-fired power plants are also used to generate electricity.

When natural gas becomes more expensive, electricity produced by these plants becomes more expensive as well.

This effect can be particularly noticeable during cold and low-wind winter days, when electricity consumption is high but renewable energy output is limited.

Estonia is connected to the Nordic and Baltic electricity markets through cross-border interconnections, which means that broader developments in the European energy market can also influence electricity prices in Estonia.

In August 2026, Estonian wholesale electricity prices increased partly due to a combination of lower renewable energy production, higher consumption and rising gas prices.

What could the 2026/2027 heating season look like?

It is impossible to predict gas or electricity prices several months in advance with certainty. Weather will play a major role.

A mild and windy winter could mean lower heating demand and higher wind power production. A prolonged cold period, however, would increase demand for both gas and electricity at the same time and could put upward pressure on prices.

Geopolitical developments and the recovery of LNG supplies will also be important.

If supply disruptions ease, pressure on gas prices may decrease. If the problems continue and Europe experiences a cold winter, energy prices could remain elevated.

When planning a household budget, it is therefore sensible to take into account that winter energy bills may be significantly higher than bills during the summer months.

How to review household expenses before the heating season

The beginning of autumn is a good time to review last year’s gas, electricity and heating bills and estimate how high monthly household expenses could become over the coming months.

First, it is worth checking your electricity and heating contracts. Changes in market prices may affect fixed-price and market-based contracts differently.

It can also be useful to compare the terms offered by different energy providers and review your home’s energy consumption.

Even relatively small changes can result in meaningful savings over the course of an entire heating season.

For example, households can review indoor temperatures, heating system settings, window and door seals, and the way larger electrical appliances are used.

It is also worth starting to put money aside for higher winter bills during the autumn.

For example, if a household normally spends €150 per month on energy but that cost may rise by €100 during colder months, the additional expense over four winter months would already amount to €400.

A more energy-efficient home can reduce costs in the long term

High energy prices are encouraging more households to consider how they can improve the energy efficiency of their homes.

Replacing old windows or doors, improving insulation, upgrading the heating system or making other energy-saving improvements may require an initial investment, but these measures can help reduce energy consumption for many years rather than for just one winter.

Before starting a larger renovation project, it is worth calculating which investment is likely to provide the greatest benefit for the specific property.

The most expensive solution is not always the best place to start. In some cases, relatively small improvements can already make a noticeable difference.

When an unexpectedly high energy bill disrupts the household budget

Whenever possible, the best approach is to save for seasonal expenses in advance. However, an unusually cold month, an unexpectedly high electricity bill or an urgent heating system repair can create a situation where a larger expense needs to be covered immediately.

If existing savings are not sufficient, one possible option may be a Laen.ee consumer loan, which can be used to cover a larger unexpected expense or, for example, finance improvements that make the home more energy-efficient.